Shuttle/Shuttle Concept Restart: Fwd: Progress M-27M debris fell about 900 kilometers west of the Marquesas Islands

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From: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Date: May 8, 2015 at 10:13:10 PM CDT
To: "Gary Johnson" <gjohnson144@comcast.net>
Subject: FW: Progress M-27M debris fell about 900 kilometers west of the Marquesas Islands

Новости Роскосмоса
РОСКОСМОС: УТОЧНЕННЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ ПО ТГК «ПРОГРЕСС М-27М» НА 16:30 7 МАЯ 2015
07.05.2015 17:26
По расчетам специалистов РОСКОСМОСа, транспортный грузовой корабль «Прогресс М-27М», запуск которого был осуществлен 28 апреля 2015 года, прекратит существование 8 мая 2015 года ориентировочно с 01.13 до 04.51 мск.

Корабль полностью сгорит в плотных слоях атмосферы Земли, и только некоторые небольшие фрагменты элементов конструкции могут достичь поверхности планеты - их характер и размеры аналогичны случаям штатного схода с орбиты ТГК «Прогресс М».
Пресс-служба Роскосмоса

ROSCOSMOS: improve the forecasting of TGK "Progress M-27M" ON 7 MAY 2015 16:30
07/05/2015 17:26
According to specialists Roscosmos, transport cargo ship "Progress M-27M", the launch of which was made April 28, 2015, will cease to exist 8 May 2015 with approximately 01.13 to 04.51 MSK.

The ship is completely burn up in the atmosphere of the Earth, and only a few small pieces of structural elements could reach the planet's surface - its nature and size similar to the case of regular de-orbiting TGK "Progress M".
Press Service of the Russian Federal Space Agency

Новости Роскосмоса
РОСКОСМОС: ТГК «ПРОГРЕСС М-27М» ПРЕКРАТИЛ СУЩЕСТВОВАНИЕ
08.05.2015 05:40
ТГК «Прогресс М-27М» прекратил существование в 05.04 мск 8 мая 2015 года. Вход в плотные слои атмосферы произошел на 160 витке над центральной частью Тихого океана.

Результаты расследования инцидента связанного с нештатным выведением ТГК «Прогресс М-27М» будут представлены не позднее 13 мая после завершения работы государственной комиссии.
Пресс-служба Роскосмоса

ROSCOSMOS: TGK "Progress M-27M" will cease to exist
08.05.2015 5:40
TGK "Progress M-27M" ceased to exist in 05.04 MSK May 8, 2015. Log into the atmosphere occurred in the coil 160 over the central Pacific Ocean.

The results of investigation of the incident related to the breeding is abnormal TGC "Progress M-27M" will be presented no later than 13 May following the completion of the state commission.
Press Service of the Russian Federal Space Agency

Joint Space Operations Center tracks Progress' reentry into the atmosphere

Posted 5/7/2015   Updated 5/8/2015

by Capt. Nicholas Mercurio
JFCC Space Public Affairs

5/7/2015 - VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. -- U.S. Strategic Command's (USSTRATCOM) Joint Functional Component Command for Space (JFCC Space), through the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC), confirmed at 8:34 p.m. PDT (11:34 p.m. EDT) that the Progress M-27M cargo transport spacecraft reentered the Earth's atmosphere and over the Pacific Ocean.

"Our mission, which we remain focused on, is to monitor space and the tens of thousands of pieces of debris that congest it, while at the same time working with our government, international and industry partners to increase space situational awareness," said Lt. Gen. Jay Raymond, JFCC Space and 14th Air Force (Air Forces Strategic) commander. "By tracking and listing these objects and making that information available, we enable spaceflight safety and increase transparency in the space domain."

The JSpOC used the Space Surveillance Network sensors and their orbital analysis system to confirm Progress' reentry, and to refine its prediction and ultimately provide more fidelity as the reentry time approached. This information is listed in USSTRATCOM's Satellite Catalog and the publicly-available website www.space-track.org. The JSpOC also confirmed reentry through coordination with counterparts in Russia, Europe and other nations.

The JSpOC does not predict or track what happens after decay and reentry occurs, such as where on the Earth's surface debris, if any, lands.

"While predictions become more accurate as the event approaches, there are many factors acting on an object as it decays and reenters the atmosphere, such as how it tumbles and breaks up, variations in the gravitational field of a landmass or ocean, solar radiation pressure and atmospheric drag, that complicate our ability to predict what happens after reentry occurs," Raymond said.

For further information on Progress M-27M, please contact Roscosmos, the Russian Federal Space Agency at +7 (495) 631-92-46 or press@roscosmos.ru.

The Official Website of Vandenberg Air Force Base

Russia's defunct Progress spacecraft may leave orbit already on Thursday evening — ESA
May 07, 16:17 UTC+3
"Any reports claiming precise re-entry times and locations at this stage are speculative," head of ESA Space Debris Office said

MOSCOW, May 7. /TASS/. Russia's defunct Progress spacecraft may fall anytime between Thursday's evening and Friday's midday, head of European Space Agency (ESA) Space Debris Office Holger Krag said on Thursday.
"We are forecasting an uncontrolled re-entry by Progress M-27M any time between later in the evening today through to midday tomorrow, 8 May," Krag said.
"Any reports claiming precise re-entry times and locations at this stage are speculative," he added.
Russian space agency Roscosmos said that the spacecraft will cease to exist in the small hours of Friday, May 8. The defunct satellite will leave orbit between 00:45 and 06:36 Moscow time, Roscosmos added.
The Institute of Space Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences said earlier on Thursday that defunct Progress M-27M spacecraft will leave the orbit at around 2.30am Moscow time on Friday.
A Soyuz-2.1a rocket carrying the Progress cargo vehicle blasted off from Baikonur, in Kazakhstan, on April 28. It soon turned out that the craft entered a wrong orbit and communication with it was lost. After several failed attempts to put it under control specialists agreed its docking with the International Space Station was impossible.
The government probe looking into the likely causes behind the loss of the cargo spacecraft Progress M-27M believes that the mishaps occurred in the Soyuz-2.1a rocket, a source in the space rocket industry said earlier on Thursday. "The inquiry has arrived at the conclusion that the loss of the Progress craft was in no way related to the vehicle itself, but occurred inside the carrier rocket," the source said.

Progress fragments present no threat to residential areas — expert
May 07, 17:02 UTC+3
Fragments that will reach Earth will most likely fall in the ocean, the expert stressed
MOSCOW, May 7. /TASS/. The possibility of defunct Progress spacecraft debris falling on a residential area is very low, director of the Institute of Geosphere Dynamics at the Russian Academy of Sciences Yuly Zetser said on Thursday.
"[Progress fragments] present no threat. We and Americans are watching it. I think that people should worry about as much as they worry about meteorite fall, which is not very likely," Zetser said.
Fragments that will reach Earth will most likely fall in the ocean, the expert stressed. Roscosmos space agency said earlier that Progress will burn down in the atmosphere, and only small fragments may reach the Earth's surface.
Roscosmos said that the spacecraft will cease to exist in the small hours of Friday, May 8. The defunct satellite will leave orbit between 00:45 and 06:36 Moscow time, the agency added.
The Institute of Space Research at the Russian Academy of Sciences said earlier on Thursday that defunct Progress M-27M spacecraft will leave the orbit at around 2.30am Moscow time on Friday.
A Soyuz-2.1a rocket carrying the Progress cargo vehicle blasted off from Baikonur, in Kazakhstan, on April 28. It soon turned out that the craft entered a wrong orbit and communication with it was lost. After several failed attempts to put it under control specialists agreed its docking with the International Space Station was impossible.
The government probe looking into the likely causes behind the loss of the cargo spacecraft Progress M-27M believes that the mishaps occurred in the Soyuz-2.1a rocket, a source in the space rocket industry said earlier on Thursday. "The inquiry has arrived at the conclusion that the loss of the Progress craft was in no way related to the vehicle itself, but occurred inside the carrier rocket," the source said.

Progress spacecraft loses orbit, burns in dense atmosphere above Pacific - Roscosmos
May 08, 7:06 UTC+3
The results of investigation into the causes of the accident that occurred when the Progress was being orbited will be submitted not later than May 13
MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. Russia's Progress M-27M spacecraft lost the near-Earth orbit and burned in dense atmosphere above the Pacific Ocean at 05:04 a.m. Moscow Time [02:04 UTC] on Friday, May 8, Russian Federal Space Agency Roscosmos told TASS.
"The spacecraft entered dense atmosphere at the 160th coil above the central part of the Pacific," a Roscosmos spokesman said.
He said the results of investigation into the causes of the accident that occurred when the Progress was being orbited will be submitted not later than May 13, when a relevant state commission completes its work.
The Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft was launched on April 28 from the Baikonur space center Russia leases from Kazakhstan on a Soyuz carrier rocket. The rocket took the spacecraft to a higher orbit than required to dock with the International Space Station (ISS).
After a few unsuccessful attempts to get control of the spacecraft, experts gave up the idea. The Progress was taking food, oxygen and other cargos to the ISS crew.
A rocket and space industry source earlier Friday told TASS that Roscosmos plans to adjust the program of flights to the International Space Station due to the recent accident involving the Progress M-27M spacecraft.
"It is suggested that the return from orbit of the expedition which is currently there be postponed from May 14 to June, then, in late June - early July, a Progress cargo spacecraft be blasted off to the ISS, and then, in the last ten days of July, a manned Soyuz launch be made," the source said.
He said the proposal was forwarded by a Roscosmos working group and has not been approved yet.
However, the source said, in connection with the fact that according to preliminary conclusions of the state commission, the Progress accident was caused by an emergency situation at the third stage of the Soyuz-2.1a carrier rocket, more time will be needed to check already manufactured rockets.

Fall of Russia's defunct spacecraft confirmed — NORAD
May 08, 8:15 UTC+3
The results of the investigation into the causes of the accident will be submitted not later than May 13
MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. Russia's Progress M-27M spacecraft has burned in dense atmosphere, the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) has confirmed.
According to NORAD, the Progress ceased to exist approximately at 02:20 UTC.
Earlier, Russia's space agency, Roscosmos, reported that the spacecraft had lost the near-Earth orbit and burned in dense atmosphere above the Pacific Ocean at 05:04 a.m. Moscow Time [02:04 UTC] on Friday, May 8.
The Progress M-27M cargo spacecraft was launched on a Soyuz carrier rocket on April 28 from the Baikonur space center Russia leases from Kazakhstan. The rocket took the spacecraft to a higher orbit than required to dock with the International Space Station (ISS).
After a few unsuccessful attempts to get control of the spacecraft, experts gave up the idea. The Progress was carrying food, oxygen and other cargos to the ISS crew. The results of the investigation into the causes of the accident will be submitted not later than May 13.

Russian defunct cargo spaceship debris fall 900 km west of Marquesas Islands — source
May 08, 11:17 UTC+3
The results of the incident investigation will be presented no later than May 13
MOSCOW, May 8. /TASS/. Russia's cargo spacecraft Progress M-27M debris fell about 900 kilometers west of the Marquesas Islands in the central Pacific Ocean, a space industry source told TASS on Friday.

"The Progress spaceship fell at 05:04 am, Moscow time, 900 km west of the Marquesas Islands in the central Pacific Ocean," he said.
The results of the incident investigation will be presented no later than May 13, following the completion of the state commission work, the Russian space agency said earlier.
The Soyuz-2.1a rocket with the Progress spacecraft was launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome (Kazakhstan) on April 28. On the same day it became clear that the ship failed to enter the target orbit, and the Mission Control lost communication with it. After several failed attempts to establish control of the ship, experts admitted it was impossible to dock the Progress with the International Space Station (ISS).

© 2015 TASS

Roscosmos Updates Progress Spacecraft Reentry on May 8
17:51 07.05.2015(updated 18:41 07.05.2015) Get short URL
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The time window for the failed Progress spacecraft reentry in the Earth's atmosphere was changed to a span between 01.13 a.m. and 04.51 a.m. Moscow time on May 8, according to Russia's space agency Roscosmos.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) — Russia's space agency Roscosmos on Thursday updated the time window for the failed Progress spacecraft reentry in the Earth's atmosphere to a span between 01.13 a.m. and 04.51 a.m. Moscow time on May 8.
"According to updated estimates by Roscosmos experts, the Progress M-27M will cease to exist on May 8, 2015, approximately between 01.13 a.m. and 04.51 a.m. Moscow time [22:13 GMT May 7 and 01:51 GMT May 8]," Roscosmos said in a statement.
Meanwhile, a source in the Russian space industry told RIA Novosti that the space freighter would most likely make the reentry over the Indian Ocean, and its debris could fall north of Madagascar.
On April 28, the Progress M-27M spacecraft, carrying fuel, oxygen, food and scientific equipment for the International Space Station (ISS) crew, was launched aboard a Soyuz carrier rocket from the Baikonur space center in Kazakhstan.
The spacecraft stopped transmitting telemetry shortly after separating from the carrier rocket and began to spin.
Roscosmos announced the following day the loss of the Progress. Russia's Energia space corporation stressed that the incident does not endanger the ISS or the work of its crew.
According to Roscosmos head Igor Komarov, a special commission has been set up to investigate the cargo vessel's failure. The investigators are expected to report their findings before the launch of a piloted mission to the ISS on May 26.

Progress Spacecraft Makes Final Fall Over Pacific Ocean
05:36 08.05.2015(updated 05:57 08.05.2015) Get short URL
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The failed Progress M-27M spacecraft has re-entered the Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean.
MOSCOW (Sputnik) – The failed Progress M-27M spacecraft has re-entered the Earth's atmosphere over the Pacific Ocean, a space industry source taking part in the operation on the cargo vessel's removal from the orbit, has told RIA Novosti.
"According to the calculated data the ship has already ceased to exist. At least neither our, nor American control systems can spot it," the source said in the early hours of Friday.
Meanwhile Russian space agency Roscosmos informed that Progress M-27M ceased to exist, entering the Earth's atmosphere over the central part of the Pacific Ocean, at 05:04 Moscow time (02:04 GMT) on Friday.
The Progress M-27M spacecraft was launched aboard a Soyuz carrier rocket from the Baikonur space center in Kazakhstan on April 28. The cargo vessel was carrying fuel, oxygen, food and scientific equipment for the International Space Station (ISS) crew.
The spacecraft stopped transmitting telemetry shortly after separating from the carrier rocket and began to spin.
Roscosmos announced the loss of the Progress the following day. According to Roscosmos head Igor Komarov, a special commission has been set up to investigate the cargo vessel's failure. The investigators are expected to report their findings before the launch of a piloted mission to the ISS on May 26.
Russia's Energia space corporation has stressed that the incident does not endanger the ISS or the work of its crew.

© 2015 Sputnik All rights reserved.

Out-of-Control Russian Cargo Spaceship Falls Back to Earth
by Leonard David, Space.com's Space Insider Columnist   |   May 08, 2015 02:08am ET

A file photo of Russia's robotic Progress 55 cargo ship leaving the International Space Station in July 2014. The Progress 59 freighter burned up in Earth's atmosphere on May 7, 2015, nine days after suffering a serious malfunction shortly after launch.
Credit: NASA View full size image
A robotic Russian cargo vessel has died a fiery death in Earth's atmosphere, nine days after launching on a failed mission to the International Space Station.
The unmanned Progress 59 freighter burned up at 10:04 p.m. EDT Thursday (May 7; 0204 GMT May 8) over the central Pacific Ocean, officials with the Russian space agency, known as Roscosmos, said in a statement.
According to Canadian satellite watcher Ted Molczan, the United States Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM) determined that Progress 59 fell to Earth at 10:20 p.m. EDT Thursday (0220 GMT May 8). [See photos of the doomed Progress 59 spacecraft]
Spinning out of control
Progress 59 blasted off April 28 atop a Russian Soyuz rocket. The freighter was packed with more than 5,200 pounds (2,359 kilograms) of cargo, including 3,075 pounds (1,395 kg) of dry cargo, 1,089 pounds (494 kg) of propellant, 925 pounds (420 kg) of water and 110 pounds (50 kg) of compressed gases, according to Russian spaceflight company OAO RSC Energia.
But shortly after launch, the cargo craft experienced technical woes and went into a tumble, perhaps as a result of a problem with the Soyuz booster's third stage.
Russian ground controllers were not able to command the Progress due to its spin rate. Following a number of failed attempts to regain control of Progress 59, Roscosmos acknowledged that the supply ship was a loss, and that it would fall back to Earth in the near future.
Progress leftovers
Despite Progress 59's impending re-entry, Russia did not request the involvement of the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC), said Holger Krag, head of the European Space Agency's Space Debris Office at the European Space Operations Center in Darmstadt, Germany.
The primary purposes of the IADC are to exchange information on space junk research activities between member space agencies, to facilitate opportunities for cooperation in space debris research, to review the progress of ongoing cooperative activities and to identify debris mitigation options.
Roscosmos is a member of the IADC.
Krag told Space.com before Progress 59's fall that some pieces of the spacecraft would likely make it through Earth's atmosphere and reach the surface. Still, there was an exceedingly small chance, he said, that a person would be injured by the spacecraft's debris.
Guessing game
According to space scientist Duncan Steel, who has been keeping an eye on the whereabouts and downfall of Progress 59 from New Zealand, trying to forecast these re-entry events isn't easy.
"I think that predicting these things is like the scene in a movie where a canoe is being carried slowly but surely towards the edge of the Niagara Falls," Steel told Space.com. "Everyone knows precisely what is going to happen, but no one is sure when. As the canoe gets closer, it speeds up a little, but you're still not sure when it will reach the edge. Then when it does reach the edge, it's all over really quickly… and it ain't pretty."
Steel said that there is simply no way to make an accurate prediction of a re-entry until the last part of the spacecraft's orbit.
"But that would require either a vast network of ground-based radars, or precise positions being telemetered down by the spacecraft," Steel said. "The problem is that the upper atmosphere swells and shrinks daily in response to sunlight and many vagaries, in particular solar outbursts of ultraviolet and X-rays."
Ezequiel Bellocchio and Jose Fabro captured (and posted on Facebook) this image of the Russian cargo spacecraft Progress 59 passing over Buenos Aires on May 7, 2015.
Credit: Bellocchio/Fabro
View full size image

Lessons learned
Progress 59's death dive is already being viewed as a teachable moment in some circles.
The European Space Agency's Krag, for example, said that all large spacecraft might soon be outfitted with small mirrors called retro-reflectors, to aid in re-entry predictions should something go wrong with their mission. This idea would make use of laser pulses broadcast from Earth to a troubled spacecraft, then reflected back to their point of origin.
"It would help people track a spacecraft — those that no longer respond to ground control," Krag said. "It's an interesting option," he said, adding that retro-reflectors would provide precise measurements of the tumbling motion of a spacecraft.
Leonard David has been reporting on the space industry for more than five decades. He is former director of research for the National Commission on Space and is co-author of Buzz Aldrin's 2013 book "Mission to Mars – My Vision for Space Exploration" published by National Geographic with a new updated paperback version released this month.
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